What Makes a Recession?
Some years ago, I wrote a piece called "When Does GDP Matter?" The issue is coming up again, because many define a recession as two...
What the Fed Is Afraid Of
Fed watching and Fed criticism have long been a staple of financial media. You would be shocked at the fortunes made by people with a...
How To Make a Fortune In The Investment Business
One of the worst kept secrets in the investment world is that there are a lot of mediocre performers managing huge sums of money on the...
Fixed Income War Story #2
Perhaps one of the most remarkable episodes in bond market history was recounted in the report shown above, written by Joe Mysak,...
Can The Fed Actually Stop Inflation?
Looking over the basket of products and commodities the government uses to produce the Consumer Price Indexes, it appears that the...
Labor Market Churn
One of the hidden aspects of reporting monthly jobs numbers is that they're always reported as a net number: either the economy "adds" or...
Initial Claims Drop To Unnoticeable
Forgotten by a fickle press, the number of initial unemployment claims has dropped to whisper levels, which is probably why no one is...
A Fixed Income War Story
This new issue came my way yesterday, and it's something of a watershed event. I haven't seen a 4.00% yield on a four year maturity for...
Quick Check-In on EPOP
Back in June of 2021, I wrote a piece about how the COVID crisis disrupted labor markets, and why we should rely more on the Employment...
Highest Inflation Since 1982! (Well, sort of)
While we are forced to deal with all kinds of supply and price disruptions due to oh, global pestilence and war, it's good to remember...