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Oh, What a Lovely Recession!

While the nattering nabobs of negativism continue to describe the current economy as a "recession," given that we've had two quarters of negative GDP, the real economy surges ahead. If this is a recession, I'll take it.

First, for initial unemployment claims, the numbers recently hit lows not seen since the Nixon era.

Continuing claims have trended down to below pre-COVID levels.

The U-6 level, which some people, with justification, consider the "real" unemployment number, hit a post war low. As in WWII.

We now have more people working than before the COVID crisis hit.

Add in some other metrics, like industrial production, ultra low delinquency rates on commercial and residential real estate, things are humming along quite well.

The travel industry is booming with hotel occupancy, at long last, eclipsing pre COVID levels. Air travel remains strong.

And inflation? Parsing out the data, more of a nuisance than a crisis, despite the headline numbers, which skew heavily towards housing costs.

While there's always something to complain about, this is hardly a recessionary environment. Let's hope it stays that way as the Fed tries to cool things down.


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